Domestic lead ingot supply maintains a tight balance, with limited cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters and firm offers [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,991/mt, fluctuating rangebound during the Asian session; upon entering the European session, it briefly rose to a high of $1,996/mt before weakening, touched a low of $1,982/mt towards the close, and finally settled at $1,993/mt, down 0.05%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,125 yuan/mt, lightly touched a low of 17,110 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, rebounded from the low to reach a high of 17,175 yuan/mt, then weakened again due to long position liquidation, and finally settled at 17,150 yuan/mt, down 0.09%.

On the macro front:

Citi turned bearish on gold prices, expecting them to fall to $4,000 within the next three months. Canada's core inflation indicators all heated up in September, slightly reducing the probability of an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in October. Reuters poll: The US Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year, with the 2026 rate path highly uncertain. China's Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation roundtable for foreign-funded enterprises: approving compliant trade according to law and maintaining the stability of the global industry chain and supply chain. The US threatened to cut off aircraft parts supply to China; the Foreign Ministry responded: tariff wars and trade wars are not in anyone's interest.

:

SHFE lead held up well. Cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were limited, spot availability was low in regions such as Henan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Hunan, with few sellers. Smelter quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at premiums of 50-175 yuan/mt; secondary refined lead ex-factory quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, some primarily took delivery based on long-term contracts, while others made purchases as needed.

Inventory: On October 21, LME lead inventory was flat from the previous day at 247,300 mt; as of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM reached 37,700 mt, an increase of nearly 100 mt from October 16.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Domestic lead ingot supply maintains a tight balance, secondary lead smelters are gradually resuming production, while primary lead smelters have both maintenance and production resumptions ongoing. Downstream battery producers maintain just-in-time procurement, with some enterprises showing good spot order purchasing enthusiasm due to low raw material inventories. Overall, lead prices are expected to maintain their strength in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.